Tuesday, April 30, 2013

S & P Price Projections (Both Higher and Lower)

The following price projections are for the S & P 500 in the next few weeks.

Positive - If there is a good jobs report, the S & P 500 ETF SPY will be headed to the $164.00 area. This is based on the pattern that the daily chart has shown since November of last year. There have been 3 up legs that were 9 points, 12 points, and 10 points from the low of a corrective leg to the high of the bull leg. The most recent low for the most recent corrective was $154.00. If the employment reports are positive, SPY will break past the current $160.00 resistance and follow through to $164.00.

Bearish - If the jobs report is negative, SPY will probably head back down to at least $155 support. Chances are good that SPY will move past $155 support and continue to $150 support. Sell in May and Go Away will most definitely be in effect if the jobs report is not good. It should also happen within a couple of weeks time.

***Disclaimer - This is just speculation and not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell anything. *** 

Friday, April 26, 2013

Time For A Market Correction

Is the market ready to correct? In regards to the S & P ETF SPY, there are some large signs in both the technical area and the fundamental area that the market is hitting a top and is ready for a correction.

On the fundamental side of the equation, earnings and overall economic activity might be taking a breather. Another eye opener is P/E ratios are rising at a clip that earnings growth is not matching. Continuous government blundering is also starting to attract appropriate attention.

Technically, alarms are going off all over the place. This second shot at $159.00 has been a failure. MACD, and RSI at multiple levels (3-month and 1 year) are at overheated levels. May to June the last couple of years has shown to be a down by 5%+ period. With the SPY, that is an approximate 7 point drop.

With all these things going on, a put trade of June $155.00 puts or some sort of put spread in the $157 - $155 range would be traded.

 ***Disclaimer - This is just an opinion and should not be taken as a recommendation. Do your own due diligence before trading or investing!***

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Is CORN Getting Ready To Pop

The ETF CORN is currently hitting 8 month lows around the $39.00 level. But there is thinking that the story has a good opportunity to change directions in a hurry like last year.

For one, the weather is currently telling a troubling story. Most of the ground in the corn belt is too wet and cold to plant. Because of this, the same amount of planted corn might shrink this year. If the country goes through any sort of drought like last year, the chances of the price of corn rising to last year's level will be high.

Another reason why prices might rise is the that the level of reserves are going to be low this year. Not having as much reserves to sell is bound to affect the price during the summer.

Looking at the August call options would be the play right now. The CORN ETF does need to reverse above 42 before any action is taken. The time value is far enough off where it would not dwindle immediately. The move last year was violent. Even 50% of last year's move puts the price in the $46.00 level.

***Disclaimer - This is just an opinion and should not be taken as a recommendation. Do your own due diligence before trading or investing!***

Friday, April 12, 2013

Confirmation Has Happened For Gold

There is confirmation for the drop in Gold. There is now a daily and weekly close below $150.00 support in the GLD ETF and confirmation that the down trend will continue. 3-6 month put or put spread option trades should be made. The target for the GLD ETF is $135.00.

 *** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Put Trade in Gold Still In Play With Goldman Note

With Goldman Sachs' bearish note on Gold, the put trade for GLD, and or IAU mentioned last week looks like it still has a chance to be put into motion. Of course, we have to wait until there is a confirmation close below $150.00 as mentioned in a previous post. A positive to this is that the put prices are a week's worth less in time value than when the trade alert happened.  We'll see.....

*** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Waiting For Confirmation

There are some basic rules to trading for this account. One of these rules is to wait for confirmation of direction before placing a trade. Confirmation of trend means that the security closes a period of trading in that trend. The closing of the period within the trend is very important. You will read about this later in the post. This rule, when followed, has saved this account a lot of money. But, when this account has felt the need to be the early bird and trade before confirmation, losses have occurred on a regular basis. A couple of examples to share would be in gold and in the Nasdaq QQQ's.

A few months ago a trade signal went off on the QQQ's. After analyzing the trade, the account purchased some call options convinced it was in a bullish trend. This analysis included looking at the way the dow and S&P averages were moving as well as some bullish moves of stocks within the Nasdaq. What it didn't include was a confirmation close of the trend. Since that trade, the price has barely budged, and the calls were stopped out.

This past week showed a trade signal for being bearish on GLD . It was very close to support at $150.00. The plan is that if if breaks below $150.00, $140.00 would be a 3-6 month target. But from the recent experience with QQQ, a confirmation close would have to come first before a put trade of any kind would be executed. The trade almost happened. In fact, in pre-market trading on Friday, GLD was trading below $150, and the thought was that a trade would almost surely be made on Monday morning. For most of the morning, it continued trading below $150. But then in the afternoon it completely reversed and not only went back above $150.00, it closed the day at $152.81. That was more than a $3.00 intraday move. The waiting for the close was instrumental in this account not placing a losing trade. Had the account made the trade early in the day, it most certainly would have been stopped out by the end of the day at a loss. Because the account waited for confirmation of trend, trading capital was saved for another trade.

Waiting for confirmation generally will mean that the trade will never start at a bottom or a top. You will rarely sell at the top or buy at the bottom. But successful stories of that happening are few and far between. That is why you hear about them. What waiting for confirmation will do is protect you from trading too soon. This will no doubt save trading capital that in the end will be as much as any top to bottom trade will ever be. It will also increase the chance of overall profit, as trading commissions will also be less. It is important to have the rule of "waiting for confirmation" within your trading plan. Otherwise, the story might be about the trader who would love to trade but has no capital.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Gold Looking Weak; Put Trade Possible

Research is showing that gold could be looking at a fall to the $1300 - $1400 dollar per ounce range in the next 3-6 months.

US economic output continues to stabilize and grow. This takes away some of the fear investment in gold. To go along with this economic improvement, the US Dollar seems to be in a stronger position which also has a transfer effect into the dollar from gold.

Technically, the chart is showing support at the $1500 level. But if level fails, look for the next support to come from the $1300 - $1400 level. Below is a barchart.com 5 year (weekly bars) chart for GLD which tracks gold.

Because there are both fundamental and technical indicators showing a possible fall, an alert is being created. A possible trade would be to purchase some puts or put spreads. Be sure to wait for the confirmation of the break of $1500 is recommended before taking any action. With stock trading, early birds get the worm far less often.

As always, these are just opinions. Please do your own due diligence before any trading or investing activity occurs.