The ETF CORN is currently hitting 8 month lows around the $39.00 level. But there is thinking that the story has a good opportunity to change directions in a hurry like last year.
For one, the weather is currently telling a troubling story. Most of the ground in the corn belt is too wet and cold to plant. Because of this, the same amount of planted corn might shrink this year. If the country goes through any sort of drought like last year, the chances of the price of corn rising to last year's level will be high.
Another reason why prices might rise is the that the level of reserves are going to be low this year. Not having as much reserves to sell is bound to affect the price during the summer.
Looking at the August call options would be the play right now. The CORN ETF does need to reverse above 42 before any action is taken. The time value is far enough off where it would not dwindle immediately. The move last year was violent. Even 50% of last year's move puts the price in the $46.00 level.
***Disclaimer - This is just an opinion and should not be taken as a recommendation. Do your own due diligence before trading or investing!***
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Friday, April 12, 2013
Confirmation Has Happened For Gold
There is confirmation for the drop in Gold. There is now a daily and weekly close below $150.00 support in the GLD ETF and confirmation that the down trend will continue. 3-6 month put or put spread option trades should be made. The target for the GLD ETF is $135.00.
*** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***
*** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Put Trade in Gold Still In Play With Goldman Note
With Goldman Sachs' bearish note on Gold, the put trade for GLD, and or IAU mentioned last week looks like it still has a chance to be put into motion. Of course, we have to wait until there is a confirmation close below $150.00 as mentioned in a previous post. A positive to this is that the put prices are a week's worth less in time value than when the trade alert happened. We'll see.....
*** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***
*** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Waiting For Confirmation
There are some basic rules to trading for this account. One of these rules is to wait for confirmation of direction before placing a trade. Confirmation of trend means that the security closes a period of trading in that trend. The closing of the period within the trend is very important. You will read about this later in the post. This rule, when followed, has saved this account a lot of money. But, when this account has felt the need to be the early bird and trade before confirmation, losses have occurred on a regular basis. A couple of examples to share would be in gold and in the Nasdaq QQQ's.
A few months ago a trade signal went off on the QQQ's. After analyzing the trade, the account purchased some call options convinced it was in a bullish trend. This analysis included looking at the way the dow and S&P averages were moving as well as some bullish moves of stocks within the Nasdaq. What it didn't include was a confirmation close of the trend. Since that trade, the price has barely budged, and the calls were stopped out.
This past week showed a trade signal for being bearish on GLD . It was very close to support at $150.00. The plan is that if if breaks below $150.00, $140.00 would be a 3-6 month target. But from the recent experience with QQQ, a confirmation close would have to come first before a put trade of any kind would be executed. The trade almost happened. In fact, in pre-market trading on Friday, GLD was trading below $150, and the thought was that a trade would almost surely be made on Monday morning. For most of the morning, it continued trading below $150. But then in the afternoon it completely reversed and not only went back above $150.00, it closed the day at $152.81. That was more than a $3.00 intraday move. The waiting for the close was instrumental in this account not placing a losing trade. Had the account made the trade early in the day, it most certainly would have been stopped out by the end of the day at a loss. Because the account waited for confirmation of trend, trading capital was saved for another trade.
Waiting for confirmation generally will mean that the trade will never start at a bottom or a top. You will rarely sell at the top or buy at the bottom. But successful stories of that happening are few and far between. That is why you hear about them. What waiting for confirmation will do is protect you from trading too soon. This will no doubt save trading capital that in the end will be as much as any top to bottom trade will ever be. It will also increase the chance of overall profit, as trading commissions will also be less. It is important to have the rule of "waiting for confirmation" within your trading plan. Otherwise, the story might be about the trader who would love to trade but has no capital.
A few months ago a trade signal went off on the QQQ's. After analyzing the trade, the account purchased some call options convinced it was in a bullish trend. This analysis included looking at the way the dow and S&P averages were moving as well as some bullish moves of stocks within the Nasdaq. What it didn't include was a confirmation close of the trend. Since that trade, the price has barely budged, and the calls were stopped out.
This past week showed a trade signal for being bearish on GLD . It was very close to support at $150.00. The plan is that if if breaks below $150.00, $140.00 would be a 3-6 month target. But from the recent experience with QQQ, a confirmation close would have to come first before a put trade of any kind would be executed. The trade almost happened. In fact, in pre-market trading on Friday, GLD was trading below $150, and the thought was that a trade would almost surely be made on Monday morning. For most of the morning, it continued trading below $150. But then in the afternoon it completely reversed and not only went back above $150.00, it closed the day at $152.81. That was more than a $3.00 intraday move. The waiting for the close was instrumental in this account not placing a losing trade. Had the account made the trade early in the day, it most certainly would have been stopped out by the end of the day at a loss. Because the account waited for confirmation of trend, trading capital was saved for another trade.
Waiting for confirmation generally will mean that the trade will never start at a bottom or a top. You will rarely sell at the top or buy at the bottom. But successful stories of that happening are few and far between. That is why you hear about them. What waiting for confirmation will do is protect you from trading too soon. This will no doubt save trading capital that in the end will be as much as any top to bottom trade will ever be. It will also increase the chance of overall profit, as trading commissions will also be less. It is important to have the rule of "waiting for confirmation" within your trading plan. Otherwise, the story might be about the trader who would love to trade but has no capital.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Gold Looking Weak; Put Trade Possible
Research is showing that gold could be looking at a fall to the $1300 - $1400 dollar per ounce range in the next 3-6 months.
US economic output continues to stabilize and grow. This takes away some of the fear investment in gold. To go along with this economic improvement, the US Dollar seems to be in a stronger position which also has a transfer effect into the dollar from gold.
Technically, the chart is showing support at the $1500 level. But if level fails, look for the next support to come from the $1300 - $1400 level. Below is a barchart.com 5 year (weekly bars) chart for GLD which tracks gold.
Because there are both fundamental and technical indicators showing a possible fall, an alert is being created. A possible trade would be to purchase some puts or put spreads. Be sure to wait for the confirmation of the break of $1500 is recommended before taking any action. With stock trading, early birds get the worm far less often.
As always, these are just opinions. Please do your own due diligence before any trading or investing activity occurs.
US economic output continues to stabilize and grow. This takes away some of the fear investment in gold. To go along with this economic improvement, the US Dollar seems to be in a stronger position which also has a transfer effect into the dollar from gold.
Technically, the chart is showing support at the $1500 level. But if level fails, look for the next support to come from the $1300 - $1400 level. Below is a barchart.com 5 year (weekly bars) chart for GLD which tracks gold.
Because there are both fundamental and technical indicators showing a possible fall, an alert is being created. A possible trade would be to purchase some puts or put spreads. Be sure to wait for the confirmation of the break of $1500 is recommended before taking any action. With stock trading, early birds get the worm far less often.
As always, these are just opinions. Please do your own due diligence before any trading or investing activity occurs.
Friday, March 8, 2013
QQQ Strangle Continues; Status Code Orange
The March QQQ strangle continues. The status of the trade is Code Orange. The total value of the $70.00 call and $65.00 put is $0.08. QQQ is finished the week trading at $68.75. That is a rise of $1.41 from last week.
Previous options trades include FXY, FXA, USO , IAU, PIN, SPY, XHB, FXF, UUP, and FXC.
If a more conservative approach is more to your trading style, Trading Futures ETF Options also follows Sell The Call, a blog covering all things covered call.
**Disclaimer** - This is just trade and or futures options information. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in this blog. Do your Due Diligence before any trading or investing.
Previous options trades include FXY, FXA, USO , IAU, PIN, SPY, XHB, FXF, UUP, and FXC.
If a more conservative approach is more to your trading style, Trading Futures ETF Options also follows Sell The Call, a blog covering all things covered call.
**Disclaimer** - This is just trade and or futures options information. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in this blog. Do your Due Diligence before any trading or investing.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
QQQ Strangle Trade Continues; Status Code Orange
The current QQQ strangle trade continues. The status of the trade is Code Orange. The strangle consists of a March $70.00 call and a March $65.00 put. The current value of both positions is $0.24.
Previous options trades include FXY, FXA, USO , IAU, PIN, SPY, XHB, FXF, UUP, and FXC.
If a more conservative approach is more to your trading style, Trading Futures ETF Options also follows Sell The Call, a blog covering all things covered call.
**Disclaimer** - This is just trade and or futures options information. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in this blog. Do your Due Diligence before any trading or investing.
Previous options trades include FXY, FXA, USO , IAU, PIN, SPY, XHB, FXF, UUP, and FXC.
If a more conservative approach is more to your trading style, Trading Futures ETF Options also follows Sell The Call, a blog covering all things covered call.
**Disclaimer** - This is just trade and or futures options information. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in this blog. Do your Due Diligence before any trading or investing.
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