Oil Ready To Fall?

It is looking like the oil etf USO might be headed down to the $30 level. There are a few reasons for this dip.

- Looking at the 5 year chart, there looks to be some seasonal selling in the summer months. Last year, there was a dip to $29.00.

- A daily downward channel has been established with lower highs and lower lows.

- Inventories are at their highest in years.

The thought is that the ETF will end up hitting the $30 level in the next 6 weeks. The June $34.00 puts look like a possible trade.

***Disclaimer - This is just speculation and opinion. Do your DD before trading!***

New Put Trade in SPY

The May $157 put options on SPY have been purchased earlier this morning for $1.05. Stop loss price is set. Goal for put is $3.00. Reasons for the purchase are:

- Chart top forming

- ADP numbers were not good

- Commodity selling before a FOMC (Federal Reserve) meeting

- Overall market negative sentiment growing

- Month of May is upon us

***Disclaimer - This is just speculation and not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell anything. *** 

S & P Price Projections (Both Higher and Lower)

The following price projections are for the S & P 500 in the next few weeks.

Positive - If there is a good jobs report, the S & P 500 ETF SPY will be headed to the $164.00 area. This is based on the pattern that the daily chart has shown since November of last year. There have been 3 up legs that were 9 points, 12 points, and 10 points from the low of a corrective leg to the high of the bull leg. The most recent low for the most recent corrective was $154.00. If the employment reports are positive, SPY will break past the current $160.00 resistance and follow through to $164.00.

Bearish - If the jobs report is negative, SPY will probably head back down to at least $155 support. Chances are good that SPY will move past $155 support and continue to $150 support. Sell in May and Go Away will most definitely be in effect if the jobs report is not good. It should also happen within a couple of weeks time.

***Disclaimer - This is just speculation and not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell anything. *** 

Time For A Market Correction

Is the market ready to correct? In regards to the S & P ETF SPY, there are some large signs in both the technical area and the fundamental area that the market is hitting a top and is ready for a correction.

On the fundamental side of the equation, earnings and overall economic activity might be taking a breather. Another eye opener is P/E ratios are rising at a clip that earnings growth is not matching. Continuous government blundering is also starting to attract appropriate attention.

Technically, alarms are going off all over the place. This second shot at $159.00 has been a failure. MACD, and RSI at multiple levels (3-month and 1 year) are at overheated levels. May to June the last couple of years has shown to be a down by 5%+ period. With the SPY, that is an approximate 7 point drop.

With all these things going on, a put trade of June $155.00 puts or some sort of put spread in the $157 - $155 range would be traded.

 ***Disclaimer - This is just an opinion and should not be taken as a recommendation. Do your own due diligence before trading or investing!***

Is CORN Getting Ready To Pop

The ETF CORN is currently hitting 8 month lows around the $39.00 level. But there is thinking that the story has a good opportunity to change directions in a hurry like last year.

For one, the weather is currently telling a troubling story. Most of the ground in the corn belt is too wet and cold to plant. Because of this, the same amount of planted corn might shrink this year. If the country goes through any sort of drought like last year, the chances of the price of corn rising to last year's level will be high.

Another reason why prices might rise is the that the level of reserves are going to be low this year. Not having as much reserves to sell is bound to affect the price during the summer.

Looking at the August call options would be the play right now. The CORN ETF does need to reverse above 42 before any action is taken. The time value is far enough off where it would not dwindle immediately. The move last year was violent. Even 50% of last year's move puts the price in the $46.00 level.

***Disclaimer - This is just an opinion and should not be taken as a recommendation. Do your own due diligence before trading or investing!***

Confirmation Has Happened For Gold

There is confirmation for the drop in Gold. There is now a daily and weekly close below $150.00 support in the GLD ETF and confirmation that the down trend will continue. 3-6 month put or put spread option trades should be made. The target for the GLD ETF is $135.00.

 *** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***

Put Trade in Gold Still In Play With Goldman Note

With Goldman Sachs' bearish note on Gold, the put trade for GLD, and or IAU mentioned last week looks like it still has a chance to be put into motion. Of course, we have to wait until there is a confirmation close below $150.00 as mentioned in a previous post. A positive to this is that the put prices are a week's worth less in time value than when the trade alert happened.  We'll see.....

*** This should be considered just information and opinions. Use your own Due Diligence before trading or investing.***